"THE MARKET... consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Alexander Elder

Friday, February 1, 2008

Monk of the Month

Your comments, please.
Any topic.


Charles Longfellow said...

YES! Congratulations. You found the monkey. Share your ideas and comments here.

pupkinus said...

Long time no see... any bias for the general direction of the market?

my ideas for the 1-2 following weeks are:
1. short small caps
2. buy some ITM SP puts
3. sell some eur/usd MAR 08 1.5000 one touch
4. depending on the technical action following the BOE announcement short GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF in equal weight. maybe add some longs in CHF versus EUR for the long run.

this is my stuff :) show me yours ;)

Charles Longfellow said...

Good to hear from you Pupkinus.
Your #4 says it all for me with:
"depending on the technical action."
Clearly we are in a bear market, (until we are not). Volatility will kill many. Best not to change one's religion in trying times.

pupkinus said...


The ugly part of the past weeks was that knee jerk emergency cut by the Fed. some of my systems flashed "short" on several types of assets, I was short when the news came out and then my stops got hit in a quite unpleasant manner. Given that usually I either manage to take a small loss or exit at break even it was very a very bad feeling to see the "disaster stops" get hit so fast and it was even more unpleasant to see that the cause of the fed cut that killed my shorts was actually a faulty risk management on a French equity derivs desk. but in the end it is all a part of the game...

Charles Longfellow said...

Quite. Tempting to suggest non-price triggered manual stops, based upon a momentum or other indicator, but such cleverness can just make a bad situation worse. At least you were following your own system.

pupkinus said...

Momentum-based or some other indicator based stops are not useful for me. I am a radical. My path in trading has been from complexity to simplicity. I am no quant. My screen has no indicators. No moving averages, no ichimoku clouds, no oscillators. Only the candle chart. The price is the only part of the market that does not lie to you. Every indicator is a step away from the price and thus a step away from the truth of the market. A spreadsheet with statistical studies regarding the price action for that instrument and the price itself is more than enough for me.

Charles Longfellow said...

Interesting. I'll have to think about that. Radical enough, to be sure! By the way..., something about Tokyo halting trading is in the news. Computer glitch supposedly.

eXTReMe Tracker

What is a Bucket Shop?

"Bucket Shop is a specifically defined term under the criminal law of many states in the United States which make it a crime to operate a bucket shop. [2] Typically the criminal law definition refers to an operation in which the customer is sold what is supposed to be a derivative interest in a security or commodity future, but there is no transaction made on any exchange. The transaction goes 'in the bucket' and is never executed. Without an actual underlying transaction, the customer is betting against the bucket shop operator, not participating in the market."
see: Wikipedia

The SEC believes that "internalization" is somehow different, and this affects ALL of your online trading, no matter what you are trading. Trades that are executed outside of the exchange, never reaching the main market, effectively hide data from technical analysis, and skew pricing.
see: Not a bucket?

"... internalization hurts retail customers and market quality"

see: EconPapers

Blog Archive